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There will be two opportunities for some long-overdue, much needed-rain this week in parts of New Jersey, though mild and dry conditions are expected for Halloween trick-or-treating.
Record high temperatures could be challenged on Thursday for Halloween festivities, forecasters say.
October seems almost certain to end as the driest month in the state on record.
On Tuesday, there’s a 15% to 25% chance of light rain in northwestern parts of the state with the rest of the state expected to continue to remain dry.
There’s another chance Thursday night into Friday, though “latest guidance looks a little less enthusiastic about the chances of measurable rain,” the National Weather Service said in its Tuesday morning forecast discussion. “Regardless, it should be fairly brief, with drier air returning during the afternoon.”
The weather service’s New York office, which covers New Jersey’s five northeastern counties (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union) says there’s a 25% to 40% chance of rain during the same time period, but noted precipitation is more likely east of the Hudson River.
All of New Jersey is either abnormally dry or experiencing moderate or severe drought conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Tuesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 60s that fall into the upper 40s and low 50s at night.
Wednesday and Thursday will be even warmer — in the mid 70s before flirting with 80 across a large portion of New Jersey on Halloween.
Overnight lows will be mild both nights in the 50s Wednesday into Thursday and then the 60s as November arrives headed into Friday.
Forecasters are calling for a high of about 80 in Newark and Trenton, which would fall shy of the Oct. 31 records of 82 and 81 set in 1946.
The high at Atlantic City International Airport for Thursday is expected to be 75, well short of the 83 the airport reached in 1946, according to the weather service.
Normal highs in late October range from the low 40s to the upper 50s and low 60s in New Jersey.
As of Tuesday morning, there has been no rain in Trenton for 30 days and in Atlantic City for 26 consecutive days, the weather service said.
The record for longest run without measurable precipitation in the two cities is 38 days — ending on May 23, 1903 and 34 days — ending on Sept. 15, 1995, according to weather service data.
Philadelphia set a record with 30 straight days without precipitation when Monday ended without a drop of rain.
There is no elevated risk of wildfire spread in New Jersey on Tuesday despite the continued dry condition. As of Monday, 242 fires in the state remain active and have not been declared extinguished, state officials said.
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Jeff Goldman may be reached at [email protected].